Performance

Fitness, fatigue, load balance, and race-day projection.

Race outlook · Big Apple Triathlon

low confidence

Too far out to call

Race-day form comes into view inside 30 days. For now: current form -7, aiming for +5 to +15 on the day.

Form now: -7Target band: +5 to +15152d to go

Fitnessidef.A 42-day exponentially-weighted average of your body load. Your long-term aerobic base.Why?

Fatigueidef.A 7-day weighted average of your body load. Current systemic fatigue.Why?

Formidef.Fitness minus fatigue. Negative = fatigued, positive = fresh. Race-day sweet spot: +5 to +15.Why?

-7

Fitness rampidef.Weekly fitness change rate. A conservative pacing guide: ≤5%/week. The evidence-backed spike signal is single-session distance vs your recent longest run (see Run spike below).Why?

+5%

Taper Calculatoridef.Back-solves the constant daily body load needed to hit your target race-day form, then projects fitness/fatigue forward so you can see the shape of the build.

Race target

Target form on race day

+10(sweet spot +5 to +15)

Daily body load targetidef.Hold this average daily body load from today to race day to hit your target form.

avg across taper

Projected fitnessidef.Fitness you'll carry into the race under this taper plan.

28.4

race-day fitness

Projected fatigue

18.5

race-day fatigue

Projected formidef.Should be +5 to +15 for a peak performance. Adjust the target form slider to tune.

+9.9

race-day form

~18 body load/day = roughly short easy spin + short run on training days, with rest days mixed in.

Fitness chartidef.Solid lines = historical. Dashed lines = projected forward to selected race + 7 days, using a realistic weekly training pattern. Click a race above to zoom the forecast window.

History

FitnessFatigueFormProjected, weekly pattern · avg 18 body load/day

Projected values on race day, based on taper plan above

BEscape the Cape27d

Fitness28.3Fatigue17.7Form+10.6

Form trendidef.Fitness minus fatigue over time. Green = fresh, orange = fatigued. Race-day target: +5 to +15.

Power-based body load for Zwift rides · HRSS for run / swim · cold-start seeded from training average